There’s nothing more satisfying than flopping a disguised set in a NLHE cash game, but if you’re constantly spewing money trying to get into this lucrative situation, you’re already onto a loser. We examine the finer points of set-mining.
Good Spot:
Game: $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold’em Cash Game (6-Max)
Hero’s Cards: 4c-4h
Hero’s Stack (BB): $80
Villain’s Stack (UTG): $60
Villain’s Stats: VPIP = 18%; PFR = 12%
SITUATION:
Sitting in a NL50 6-max cash game, the villain - a solid, competent player - opens for $1.75 from first position with a stack of $60. Action folds right the way around to our hero in the big blind with 4c-4h. Are they correct to call here and what factors should they be taking into account when making such a decision?
ANALYSIS:
In this example, our hero can correctly call the under-the-gun player’s raise with the intention of trying to flop a set. The first thing to note is that the effective stacks are 120 big blinds deep, and although our hero’s hand is by no means a powerhouse at the moment, should they flop a set there is a good chance that they will be able to get all of the money into the middle. The second relevant factor is that the villain’s PFR and VPIP indicate a very tight raising range which will be further narrowed by their position. This means it is highly likely that they will be holding a hand – namely a big pair or big ace – which will be willing to stack-off on the right kind of board, so the chances of a set getting paid off are very high. Both these considerations make this a great spot to set-mine.
Bad Spot:
Hero’s Cards: 4c-4h
Hero’s Stack (BB): $80
Villain’s Stack (BTN): $20
Villain’s Stats: VPIP = 39%; PFR = 33%
SITUATION:
Sitting in the same NL50 6-max cash game, our hero again picks up the same 4c-4h with $80 again in their stack. This time, however, an active player who has opened a lot of pots in the last hour, raises to $1.75 from the button and our hero is left with the same decision in the big blind. What should they do this time and why?
ANALYSIS:
Though our hero’s cards, stack and position are all identical to those in the first example, what we know about the villain in this scenario makes this a very bad spot to set-mine. Because the villain has lost over half of their $50 buy-in, the effective stacks have become just 40 big blinds deep, meaning the pay-off for flopping a set is greatly reduced. Similarly, our opponent’s VPIP and PFR indicate that they are opening with a wide range of hands, the majority of which will not be strong enough to stack-off with unless they really connect with the flop. As such, it is difficult for our hero to get paid-off when they hit, and even when they do, a maximum pot of $40 isn’t a great return given the number of times they will be forced to check-fold when they miss the flop. In this scenario, three-betting or folding are both better alternatives.
Live Example: Anthony Curtis v Sam Farha, 2005 WSOP
In this car-crash of a hand from the World Series of Poker, high stakes pro Sam Farha demonstrates exactly how a deep stack and a predictable opponent provide the perfect criteria for set-mining with a small pair.
With the blinds at 25/50, amateur Anthony Curtis raises to 1,000 (yes, 1,000!) with Ah-Ac and play quickly folds around to Farha holding 3h-3d. With Curtis’ insanely big 20x BB raise signalling either a monster hand or a colossal mistake on his part, Farha correctly gauges that if he flops a set, there’s a huge pot to be won.
“It’s only money right?” says Farha, before tossing a tenth of his 10,000 starting stack and duly flopping a set on the perfect 6d-3s-7d board. Checking the action over to Curtis, the amateur again massively over-bets the pot by firing out 6,000 and, in an instant, Farha knows he has his man. Swiftly raising all-in, Curtis is forced to call for his remaining 3,000 and no help on the turn or river costs the amateur his entire stack. |
