The Brummie wonder returns with top tips on bluffing in Hold’em.
We all know that poker players are wonderfully honest folk; at least, that’s what they all tell me. However, for the purpose of this article, we’re going to delve into the topic of lying.
If someone is going to tell a believable lie, they have to make sure their fabricated story could fit in with what has happened. If their story would not be possible given the known facts, their lie is easily exposed.
The issue of bluffing is exactly the same. If the bluff is our “lie,” our “story” is that we have a winning hand, and this must fit in with the known facts, which of course are the actions over the different streets.
Let’s have a think about the logic behind a story in our first example:
Example #1
There is one limper in the cut-off, and you raise with As-Kd from the small blind. The limper calls and you see a flop of 10d-9d-3d. The flop gives you the 2nd nut flush draw and you make a continuation bet of two-thirds of the pot. Your opponent calls, a nine pairs the board on the turn, and you both check. The river is a blank two. On a board of 10d-9d-3d-9h-2c, you check and your opponent makes a bet of 2,000 into the 2,500 pot. Your opponent has seemed like a fairly average player. Can you think about calling.
Our reasoning
In the example above, against anyone but a very good player, I would throw my chips into the pot without hesitation here. Of course you cannot be sure that this is right, but if it is, this is a typical example of a very bad bluff.
How can we call with A-K without hesitation?
Once our opponent makes this kind of big bet, he is telling a story that he has a very big hand. Therefore, we just need to examine his possible claims, and see whether they fit. Our analysis might be something like this:
A full house - Unless our opponent has the unlikely 2-2, a full house would require him to have flopped two pair or a set. Surely every reasonable opponent protects these hands on the all-diamond flop with a re-raise? Even if they don’t, surely they try to get value from their hand by betting the turn?
Three nines - It would be very unusual for someone to make three nines on the turn, and check behind when their opponent checks to them.
A flopped flush - Our opponent might try to trap on the flop with a flush, but a pair on the board would give them enough reason to protect their hand on the turn. If this bet is indeed a bluff, the big mistake is that this line that a player would use to get value. The decision to forgo value on the turn does not fit with them making an overly big bet on the end.
But there are so many marginal hands that can beat us?
A big bet like this claims a big hand. It is almost never made with a hand like 6-6 or J-10, which our opponent would happily check and show down on the end. We are therefore given the massive help of being able to eliminate the whole of the middle of our opponent’s range. Once the claim of a big hand does not stand up to our examination, we can make a fairly confident call.
A Better Way to Bluff
If your opponent does decide to show his hand, do not be at all surprised to see something like Qd-Jc or Ad-5c a large amount of the time.
Many players bluff in this very obvious way, and are actually making two crucial mistakes. Not only does their story not fit, but they are claiming to have a very narrow range of hands.
Remember that our decision to call was actually helped by the big bet, because we only had to worry about a few specific hands. Imagine how hard it would have been to call had our opponent made a bet of 600 on the turn, and 1,000 on the river. This is what the best bluffers call widening your range.
The Emotions of Bluffing
Bluffing is the most exciting part of our very emotional game. However, we are beginning to realise is that it is not emotions, but logic, that governs when we should and should not bluff. In our previous example, the main reason our opponent decided to bluff was the frustration of not hitting his hand.
If we are to obey this lesson, we should sometimes be bluffing when we did not plan to, but when the right conditions hand us a good opportunity.
Example #2
We call our opponent’s raise on the button with 9h-8h, and see a flop of Js-8s-2c. Our opponent is an aggressive player, and so we decide that our hand might be good, and call bets of 500 and then 1,000 on the king of hearts turn. The seven of spades on the river completes many draws, and so a board of Js-8s-2c-Kh-7s is maybe one that we did not want to see. Our opponent checks to us...
Many players with our 9h-8h will have already turned their hand over. They have a decent pair to show down, and can expect to take down the pot some of the time.
However, we can do much better than this. Circumstances have come together, and have actually handed us the perfect opportunity to turn our hand into a bluff.
Turning our hand into a bluff
A crucial skill in poker is to attempt to read what your opponent thinks you have. He does not know that we have called two streets because we are suspicious enough of his hand. More likely, two flat-calls will signal to him some kind of drawing hand. When our two flat calls are followed by a bet when the “nightmare” card comes on the end, it may be very difficult for him not to believe that we have hit a straight or flush. After all, most opponents just do not expect you to turn one pair into a bluff.
This type of hand shows us that we should always be alert to the possibilities that arise throughout a hand. Turning a made hand into a bluff is one of them, and is a very fearsome tool to be able to draw upon.
Key Lesson #1
It is difficult to put together a watertight bluff. If your representation of a big hand is going to be believed, you must make sure that all your previous actions would have been the same if you had indeed held this hand.
Key Lesson #2
The key to scaring your opponent with a bluff is not to claim that you have a very big hand, but that you have a very wide range of hands. Even if this includes some hands that are not super-strong, it is the sheer number of hands that fit with your story that makes it tough for your opponent to call.
Key Lesson #3
Whether they realise it or not, most player time their bluffs depending on when they want to bluff. The best players play without any emotion at all; they choose their bluffs precisely on when the conditions are right. |
