Jon Huckle gets mathematical this month as he tackles the basics of Pot Odds.
Having played the online and live MTT circuit for a number of years I have seen just about every excuse from opponents as to why and when they have made questionable or downright stupid calls in tournaments.
“How could you call?!” is the cry, and the reply usually comes in the form of either the famous “I put you on…”, the even more famous “You’ve got to be in it to win it”, or the ever-popular “I just fancied a gamble”, as their opponent storms off to the rails or laughs at his conqueror’s incompetance.
Online, this tends to be worse as there is always another tournament starting in a minute and in a live game you can’t just close the screen to avoid the inevitable abuse. These sort of moronic tactics are usually employed by those with unlimited cash but little brain or the bingo gamblers often commuting over from the various sportsbooks attatched to poker sites. Despite this, please note that although we hate such players and curse them for the outdraws they give us, long-term they pay our wages so try to avoid banging on the aquarium.
GONE FISHING
Once such players pass the early stages of chimpdom (normally getting fed up of having the piss taken out of them or wondering why their wage packet is gone by Saturday morning) they then progress to using poker maths as an excuse to call with any banana hand they feel like in the hope of donking any unsuspecting player with a genuine hand. Or, as I like to put it, the “I had odds to call” excuse.
The true chimp believes that just because he had some chips in a pot he has to call any bet, no matter how big, as long as it’s not for his full stack. Sound familiar? But true poker maths normally comes into play when a player makes an informed decision to make a call based on the likelihood of his hand winning a pot, the amount he has to commit and the resulting chips he may win from said pot. Whether it be the chances of hitting an up-and-down straight or flush draw or pairs verses over-cards, all of these have particular odds of hitting and those odds factored against what can be won can make the diffence in making the correct call or pass.
Unlike in cash game play, where often the size of a player’s bankroll can affect their use of poker maths, in tournament and STTs, your decision to play in any pot depends on factors like position, stack size, and your opponent.
POT ODDS
Simply put, the two most common types of poker maths are pot odds and implied pot odds. Pot odds are the amount of money needed to call into a pot against the likelihood of the cards yet to come hitting your hand to win the pot, and the player has no further chips you can take off him. For example the likelihood of, say, A-J beating an under-pair or hitting an up-and-down straight draw or a flush all have a % chance.
EXAMPLE 1
Let’s say the pot size is $4,000. You have a $1,000 bet to call to win the pot so you are getting 4-1 (risking $1,000 to win $4,000). If you are chasing a flush the odds of hitting are 4-1 with one card to come so you have the correct odds to make the call in such a situation.
However what you have to consider when deciding to take on this sort of call is: Are you taking on the player one-on-one or are there others to act behind you that may go over the top to isolate the player? Are you likely to get called behind to increase your odds making the call potentially more lucrative?
EXAMPLE 2
You limp into a pot for $100 from early position with A-10 suited and there are two callers. The big blind then makes it $400 to go. With the pot now standing at $750 normally heads-up you should pass $300 to win $750. 2.5/1 is not great odds with a suited ace, but assuming you may get one or two callers this increases the pot odds to 3.5 or 4.5-1 and the risk is then more acceptable.
Sometimes, however, even though you have the odds to call you need to consider whether you can you afford it. Knowing that you are most likely behind you have to think how many chips will you have left if you lose the hand. Would it be the prudent thing to protect your stack and wait for a better spot if you’re running short?
IMPLIED ODDS
Pot odds are fairly simple to grasp but things get a little more complicated when you start talking about implied odds. Implied odds come into play when you make a drawing call into a pot either post flop or after the turn where your opponent has chips behind, and you think you can take chips off him if you hit your hand.
EXAMPLE 1
You’re holding Q-10 on a 8-J-A board. Only the K or 9 make your hand so you have 8 outs. The pot is 4000 and you need to bet 2000 to call, making the pot odds 2-1. For pot odds like that you can’t make the call but your opponent has 10,000 chips behind and if you hit and think you can get those off him your implied odds are 5-1 plus the pot odds of 2-1, thus making it more than worth it to try and hit that 8-outer.
Normally when taking on such calls you have to take into account the chance that even if you hit your hand are you still going to be ahead? A lot of players take on such calls in multi-way pots with flush draws only to find themselves running into bigger flushes. Chasing draws on paired boards is another example where you should not go chasing as you will more often than not be oblivious to the full house, possibily because you are so happy to hit your draw.
As with most draws it’s more likely you will make your hand with two cards to come, however much implied odds you have, so your decision will depend on the likelihood of seeing both those cards cheaply enough. If you are up against an aggressive opponent it’s wiser to pass as you know he’ll make it too expensive if you miss on the next street.
It’s a complicated subject, even when applied to No Limit Hold’em, and although I’ve outlined some of the play here there are many books dedicated to poker maths. I’d recommend looking further afield to get a true understanding of what, where, when and how to apply such tactics. Otherwise, you may find yourself auditioning for a part in Finding Nemo 2. |
